And The Winner Is...

Full disclosure:  I've never accurately predicted who will win much of anything. And, for the record, neither has anyone else.  There's a reason Vegas has all those lavish hotels. They're not paying for them with SPLOST funds.

For the last two years, I've picked Matt Kuchar to win the Masters. It pains me to pick Matt Kuchar.  Don't get me wrong...I love the guy. This year I am covering my 16th Masters, and there is no one more genuine or engaging on the PGA Tour than Matt Kuchar. Unlike many athletes, Kuchar will have a conversation with you in an interview rather than spitting out soundbytes and looking off into the distance for someone, anyone to come save him.

But, in my personal life, I'm a graduate of the University of Georgia...and Matt went to Georgia Tech. We don't play nice together. For all of Bubba Watson's..ummmm...eccentricities, it's filled me with pride two of the last three falls to watch him wear his Green Jacket to midfield during a UGA football game at Sanford Stadium to be recognized for winning the Masters. I have no desire to see a Green Jacket ever darken the door of Bobby Dodd Stadium. Well, at least not again...

Both times I've picked Kuchar he has given me (and, I suppose more importantly, himself) hope going into the final round.  In 2013 he finished tied for eight and last year he finished in a tie for 5th. But, inevitably, my pick doomed him. So this year, as an act of public service to Matt and all of his fans, I will NOT pick Matt Kuchar. You can thank me on Sunday.

So who am I going to pick? First, let me eliminate a few of the usual suspects.

I expect Tiger Woods to play better than most anyone else expects him to play. His entire story still blows my mind. I believe the fall of Tiger Woods is the number one sports story of the last decade, if not more. We are going on six years since he's been the Tiger Woods many of us remember. This year's tournament marks ten years since his historic chip at 16 and last win at Augusta. Do you know what that means?  It means the 10 year olds at Augusta National this week view Tiger the same way I viewed Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski and Dr. J whe

n I was 10. People kept telling me how great they were, but I had no physical evidence because most of it occurred when I was still in my parents' planning stages.  Yes, the patrons still flock to him. The question I've been most asked this week is still, "Is Tiger out here?".  But you know what? Second on that list is Ben Crenshaw...and Ben Crenshaw hasn't been competitive at Augusta since his last win 20 years ago.

I'm wondering how much of the attention toward Tiger this week is a nostalgia act. Even his latest commercial supports that narrative (even though it's an amazing ad). How many Dads are dragging their kids to see Tiger when junior would rather see Rory or Rickie or the Drive, Chip and Putt Finals?  Tiger is only seven years younger than Jack Nicklaus was when Nicklaus shocked the world in 1986. I remember as a kid thinking Jack was "so old" then. Do I think Tiger has another Green Jacket in his future? Yes. Some people just play well here (see also: Palmer, Nicklaus, Mickelson, Watson) and some people just have horrible luck here (Miller, Els, Norman).

Tiger will surprise, but he won't win this year.

Rory McIllory? Jordan Spieth? Dustin Johnson? I think each will win one or more Masters in their career, but I also think each brings certain baggage into this year's tournament that will keep them from donning the Green Jacket on Sunday.

No, my pick this year is a player who has never won a major, much less a Masters. What he did do was finish T-8 in his Masters debut last year. He followed that up with a tie for 9th in his first U.S. Open in 13 years and a tie for 7th in his second PGA Championship. WHAT major pressure?

He's also already a two-time winner this year on the PGA Tour. He ranks second on Tour in putting average and first in "Birdie Conversion Rate".  That last one is how they measure what you do once you get to the green. You know what's really important at Augusta National? 

But, maybe most importantly, my pick is 36 years old. There was probably a time in his life where he thought a Green Jacket was the most important thing in the world. At 36 you know that's not true. At 36 you've been to the puppet show and seen the strings. At 36 you have the resolve to play the back nine on Sunday and not let your emotions get the best of you.

My pick is being hailed as a "dark horse" by many, but I think he is the outright favorite no matter what Las Vegas says.

My pick to win the 2015 Masters is....Jimmy Walker.

I apologize in advance, Jimmy.